AdWatch: The Rise Of Ron Paul
October 27, 2007, 3:39pm
Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has been climbing the Republican presidential charts in all the ways that matter — fundraising, poll numbers and friendly media coverage. His rise has been strong enough that he’s using it as a selling point in a new television advertisement dubbed “Catching On.”
The ad touts his opposition to keeping U.S. forces in Iraq, his efforts to protect Americans’ privacy and civil liberties in the age of terrorism, his fiscal conservatism and his understanding of healthcare issues as a former doctor. “He’s catchin’ on, I’m tellin’ ya,” one person says in the ad.
The ad is only Paul’s third of the campaign. The other two ran earlier this year in Iowa.
Categories: Texas, Health, Civil Liberties, Terrorism, Budget, AdWatch, Ron Paul, Rep. Ron Paul
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October 28th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
‘Leaners’ and Polling Bias
How your perceptions are manipulated
By Rolf Lindgren
The greatest bias in traditional political polling is the way ‘leaners’ are counted.
Leaners are people who say they are undecided when polled, but when pushed to pick whom they are leaning towards, they come up with a name, usually someone with strong name recognition.
For example, suppose a political pollster called you and asked; “If the election were held today, would you vote for [blank], [blank], or [blank], etc.?”
Response; “I’m not sure.”
Pollster; “If you had to pick someone, who would you be leaning towards?”
Response; “Well, er, um, I’m not sure, maybe, … , well, I might pick McCain?”
Pollster; “McCain?”
Response; “Yup, McCain, I think.”
Pollster; “Are you sure?”
Response; “Yep.”
BINGO! In this poll, the respondent will be listed as voting for McCain.
Most polls do not report what percentage of responses are leaners except sometimes in fine print, but usually about 1/3 of candidate support is leaners.
Let’s look at a typical poll to see how leaners distort perceptions.
Saint Anselm College Poll for New Hampshire, October 2007, Republican Primary
7www.anselm.edu/NR/rdonlyres/B9…
Results:
Mitt Romney 32%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
John McCain 15%
Ron Paul 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Fred Thompson 5%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Sam Brownback 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Other 1%
None/No answer/Didn’t know 9%
[The poll did not list a margin of statistical error. Most traditional polls have a margin of error of 4% or less, so we will assume a 4% margin of error.]
This poll makes it appear mathematically impossible for anyone but Romney, Giuliani, or McCain to win, with Romney almost having it wrapped up. The others have no chance to win.
For Giuliani, if he takes his 22% and gets all of the 9% undecided vote, he is still at 31%, not enough to win. So he needs the margin of error to fall in his favor as well. Not likely.
For McCain, if he takes his 15%, gets all 9% of the undecided vote, and the 4% margin of error falls in his favor, he will be at 28%, still not enough to win. Unless Romney drops the 4% margin of error to 28%, then it’s a tie. Very unlikely.
Paul has absolutely no chance to win.
But lets look what would happen if the leaners were counted for what they really are; undecided; assuming 1/3 of all support is leaners:
Mitt Romney 21%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
John McCain 10%
Ron Paul 5%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Fred Thompson 4%
Others 2%
UNDECIDED 39%
If the poll were reported this way, it would show that EVERYONE had a chance to win. And in fact, they do, if they are able to overcome the polling bias that leads to little media coverage for underdog candidates.
For example, in this poll, Paul would only need 1/2 of the undecided vote to beat Romney by 3%.
The next time you hear that someone has no chance to win because of a poll, please ask if they realize that ‘leaners’ are really undecided voters.
Rolf Lindgren was the Polling Director for the 2004 Michael Badnarik Presidential campaign, the 2004 Aaron Russo Presidential campaign, and assisted with polling in the 2002 Ed Thompson Wisconsin Governor campaign.